Some predictions for 2025

A year ago, I tried to make a few predictions for what 2024 had in store for us. And while I missed a few, I actually think I did pretty OK! Here’s my scorecard:

• There will be an AI-related scandal in the 2024 election (90%): There were a lot of little blips where AI played a role in confusing voters, but there wasn’t the “big one.” I’ll take the L here.
• Shohei Ohtani’s giant contract will be immediately worth it (70%): Ohtani had one of the best offensive seasons of all time, won the MVP award, and led the Dodgers to a World Series championship. I’d say it was worth it.
• TikTok Shop will make a lot of money but will hurt the platform overall (65%): I can’t find official numbers, but I’m seeing estimates of as high as $11 billion in sales this year. And anecdotally, I’ve witnessed the quality of the experience dip as the app turns more and more into Gen Z QVC. I’ll say a soft W here.
• Elon Musk will lose control of Twitter (60%): He still very much owns something that used to be Twitter, though I think the community that made Twitter Twitter has largely moved over to platforms like Bluesky. Despite that, I’ll take the L.
• Crypto has a tiny bit of bounce back (70%): Definitely a bounce back, but not tiny. Bitcoin is ending the year somewhere near $100k. NFTs are still worthless, though. Soft W.
• Apple Vision Pro will be a hit, but you won’t get one (75%): You definitely didn’t get one, but it was far from a hit. L.
• Google tries something big to save search (60%): Well, they integrated AI to generally poor results (remember glue on your pizza?). You can see that they want to do something here, but I think the core search product is just as bad, if not worse, than it was a year ago. An unsatisfying W.
• Media franchises continue to fade (70%): 18 of the top 20 grossing movies this year were sequels or otherwise based on existing IP. People complained about it, but it didn’t really matter. I’ll take the L.
• The economy is going to be fine (65%): It was more than fine! Inflation is tamed, unemployment is low, and stocks are high. It doesn’t always feel great, and it can always be better, but factually, the economy is roaring. W.
• We discover evidence of alien life (10%): Lots of buzz about UFOs, but nothing yet. L.

So, five-ish out of ten! I’ll take it – though I lost on both my most confident and least confident bets.

With 2025 dawning tomorrow, here is my final entry into list season: An unscientific set of predictions, along with my confidence level in each:

Congestion pricing is going to be great (75%)

Despite an unfortunate delay, New York’s congestion pricing plan will finally go into effect on January 5. If literally every other city that has done this is a guide, it’s going to be a big success.

Google is broken up, at least a little (65%)

Either by government force or to avoid government force, I bet we’ll see some sort of split at Google this year. Maybe Chrome gets spun off, or Android. I don’t think it will be YouTube, but maybe.

The new Jurassic Park movie will be pretty good (30%)

I’m in an abusive relationship with the Jurassic franchise. After six movies, I have to admit that only maybe two of them are actually good. But despite that, I will still see them in theaters each and every time. Having David Koepp, the original film’s screenwriter and a former client of mine, back writing the script gives me hope.

The New York Yankees will win the pennant again (50%)

Losing Juan Soto is a bummer. But I think that with all the post-Soto revenge spending, this coming year’s team might actually be better than last year’s. Plus, the American League as a whole is about as weak as it’s ever been. World Series, maybe, but pennant, yes.

Somebody weird buys TikTok (45%)

I feel like we’ve been talking about a TikTok ban for a long time. I don’t think it ultimately happens, but I do believe somebody unexpected will buy it. Think Walmart, Cisco, Berkshire Hathaway, Adobe, etc. See the Google antitrust case from above for why the “MAAMA” s of the world won’t be the buyer.

The retail apocalypse will accelerate (70%)

Did you have to visit a mall or department store this holiday season? Despite my best intentions, I ended up in both, and let me tell you – it’s bleak out there. Even in the nicest places, with some of the trendiest brands, everything was just kinda sad. Counters were chipped, lights were flickering, and clearance racks were piled high with plasticky junk. We’re already seeing significant closures with Party City, Big Lots, Advance Auto Parts, BuyBuy Baby, CVS, Family Dollar, Express, and Macy’s. I think we’ll see more big ones go lights-out in 2025, including some surprises.

OpenAI comes back to earth (50%)

With DALLE and ChatGPT, OpenAI fired some of the first and most important shots of the AI arms race. But you can already see some of that first-mover advantage start to fade as the Googles and Metas of the world continue their investment, and upstarts like Anthropic win over converts each day. Headlines about top talent heading for the exits and money running dry make me think that they will not end the year as dominant in the industry as they start it.

Taylor Swift gets engaged (25%)

I dunno, this is just based on my wife’s Instagram feed. From what I can tell, she and Travis Kelce seem like pretty decent folks, so good for them if it happens.